In recent weeks, Sunni Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have been attempting to reintegrate President Bashar al-Assad of Syria into the Arab League, following his expulsion 12 years ago due to his violent repression of opposition. The reopening of Saudi Arabia's embassy in Damascus indicated a belief that Assad's regime was stable.
Despite these efforts, Assad has been reluctant to distance himself from Iran, even as both Iran and Russia, his primary backers, face challenges due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. A meeting in Doha, Qatar, involving foreign ministers from Arab states, Turkey, Russia, and Iran aimed to stabilize Assad's regime but ended without resolution.
Shortly after the meeting, rebel forces advanced on Damascus, leading to the collapse of Assad's government and his subsequent flight to Russia. This development prompted discussions among Arab officials regarding the implications of a post-Assad Middle East, where Iran's influence is waning and Turkey and Israel are gaining power.
Geir O. Pederson, the U.N. special envoy for Syria, expressed hopes for a caretaker government that respects minority rights and establishes a central authority. He cautioned, however, that the potential for fragmentation remains, as various armed groups may seek to maintain control over their territories, reminiscent of the situation in Afghanistan.
Concerns also center on the intentions of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group with a complex history, as it seeks to assert control in Damascus. Pederson emphasized the need for an inclusive transition that avoids monopolization by any single group.
Turkey's interests in northern Syria complicate the situation, as it has established a buffer zone and opposes Syrian Kurds, who are supported by the United States. Turkey's recent military actions against Kurdish-held areas highlight its strategic priorities in the region.
Experts suggest that Turkey's approach to its Kurdish issue will significantly impact its influence in Syrian politics and the potential return of Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey. The fall of Assad is viewed as a strategic victory for Turkey, which aims to diminish Iranian influence while benefiting from reconstruction efforts.
Russia faces reputational challenges following its support for Assad, as its leverage in the region appears diminished. Israel, sharing a border with Syria, remains vigilant, concerned about the rise of extremist groups in a potentially chaotic Syria. The fall of Assad may also alter dynamics in Lebanon, where Iran's focus might shift more towards political influence rather than military proxy operations.
Analysts express cautious optimism regarding the potential for a shift in regional power dynamics, moving away from Iranian dominance. This could open avenues for improved relations between Israel and Arab states, contingent upon careful diplomacy in the evolving landscape.