During a recent visit to Paris for Armistice Day, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with French President Emmanuel Macron, marking the first time a British leader has participated in the event since Winston Churchill in 1944. This visit underscored Starmer's Labour government’s aim to improve relations with Europe.
However, the visit was overshadowed by the recent election of Donald J. Trump as the American president, whose history of antagonism towards the European Union complicates Starmer’s plans to “turn a corner on Brexit” and rebuild ties with Europe. Diplomats warn that closer trade relations with Europe could strain the U.K.'s relationship with the U.S., as Trump is a known supporter of Brexit and previously encouraged confrontations between the U.K. and the E.U.
Stephen Moore, a senior economic adviser to the Trump campaign, stated that a re-engagement with the E.U. would likely reduce the chances of a free-trade agreement with the U.K. He emphasized that the British public must decide whether they wish to align more closely with Europe or the U.S.
British officials, however, reject this notion as a false dilemma. Starmer has sought to balance his outreach to Europe while also engaging with Trump. The two leaders reportedly met for dinner in September, during which Trump expressed friendship towards Starmer.
Peter Mandelson, a prominent Labour figure, suggested that the U.K. must find a way to maintain beneficial relationships with both Europe and the U.S. Economists propose that this could involve advancing trade relations with Europe while pursuing partial agreements with the U.S. on key sectors such as the digital economy.
Marley Morris from the Institute for Public Policy Research noted that the Labour government is likely to attempt to collaborate with Trump while fostering ties with the E.U. However, historical attempts to negotiate a trade agreement with the U.S. during the Johnson administration were unsuccessful, and Trump’s current trade policy may focus on imposing tariffs that could impact both the E.U. and the U.K.
Some analysts argue that U.S. tariffs on the E.U. could inadvertently benefit the U.K. by pressuring the E.U. to expand its market, creating opportunities for British trade. Nonetheless, the potential for increased protectionism could also create divisions if the U.K. seeks a separate deal with Trump, which could lead to concessions that might alienate European partners.
Experts warn that the U.K. cannot simultaneously align with Trump’s trade policies while adhering to E.U. regulations. Mark Blyth, an international economics professor, emphasized that aligning too closely with the U.S. could hinder access to E.U. markets.
Trade dynamics may further complicate if Trump instigates tensions with China, as the U.S. might pressure the U.K. and E.U. to join in imposing tariffs. Kim Darroch, a former British ambassador to Washington, highlighted the difficult choices that could arise from such a scenario.
Proponents of closer ties with Europe argue that it would be beneficial for the U.K., given that trade with the E.U. significantly exceeds that with the U.S. Last year, British exports to the E.U. reached £342 billion, accounting for 42% of total exports, while imports totaled £466 billion, representing 52% of total imports.
Efforts to rebuild these ties could alleviate some economic losses incurred from Brexit, as British exporters face various trade barriers and compliance issues with E.U. regulations. The British Chamber of Commerce has outlined numerous reforms aimed at easing trade friction.
The historical skepticism of NATO by Trump, coupled with the growing sentiment in Europe for greater self-reliance in security matters, presents an additional incentive for U.K.-E.U. cooperation. François Hollande, a former French president, advised that Starmer should position himself as a European leader.
However, Starmer faces challenges in this endeavor, particularly from a media landscape that remains critical of the E.U. Additionally, concerns persist within Labour about the potential backlash from voters in regions that supported Brexit but returned to Labour in the last election.
Experts suggest that while Starmer’s government will strive to negotiate favorable terms with both Europe and the U.S., there may come a point where a choice must be made between the two.