The first Trump administration’s Middle East policy focused on two main objectives: crippling Iran’s economy and isolating Iran by fostering closer ties between its primary Arab adversaries and Israel.
A significant achievement in this strategy was the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, in the administration's final months. These accords were accompanied by American commitments to substantial arms deals for some signatories.
At that time, officials expressed hopes that Saudi Arabia, a key player in Arab geopolitics, would eventually recognize Israel—a goal that President Biden also attempted to pursue without success.
As President-elect Donald J. Trump prepares to take office, he will inherit a markedly altered geopolitical landscape in the Middle East compared to four years ago. Alliances have shifted, priorities have evolved, and longstanding tensions have either intensified or eased. The recent Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the ensuing conflict in Gaza could have lasting repercussions for the region.
Recently, Mr. Trump appointed Steven Witkoff, a real estate magnate and campaign donor, as his special envoy to the Middle East. Witkoff, a strong supporter of Israel, attended a congressional address by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in July. The president-elect’s choices for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio, and U.S. ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, have also shown unwavering support for Israel's actions in Gaza.
Mr. Trump has often claimed that he can "make a deal" in foreign affairs, a sentiment that resonates with many Middle Eastern nations that practice transactional diplomacy. However, the current environment presents challenges for negotiations, as the space for potential deals has diminished.
Experts caution that if the Trump administration attempts to resume its previous approach, it may misinterpret the current dynamics. Kristian Ulrichsen, a Middle East expert, noted that the situation has changed significantly since 2020.
During the last administration, Palestinians were largely excluded from discussions aimed at normalizing relations between Israel and Arab states. The Arab nations did not demand concrete steps toward establishing a Palestinian state as a condition for diplomatic agreements with Israel. Consequently, Netanyahu made minimal concessions while securing recognition from several historical adversaries.
The Biden administration's efforts in 2023 to broker a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia were similarly disrupted by the recent violence. Saudi Arabia's demands for a deal have intensified, with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stating that recognition of Israel would not occur without a commitment to a Palestinian state.
While there is a possibility that the Crown Prince may soften his stance, the current political climate poses risks for him domestically and across the Arab world. His previous remarks indicated that Palestinian statehood was not a top priority, but the recent escalation in violence has shifted public sentiment.
In contrast, Israel's current government, led by Netanyahu, is less inclined to make concessions. The ultranationalist coalition has advocated for increased settlements in the West Bank and has expressed intentions to reclaim territory from Palestinians. Netanyahu's reliance on far-right coalition partners limits his ability to negotiate meaningfully with Palestinians.
The geopolitical landscape is also evolving independently of U.S. and Israeli influence. Relations between Iran and Gulf states have begun to thaw, with Iranian diplomats engaging with officials from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This shift reflects a pragmatic understanding of the U.S. military disengagement from the region.
Saudi officials recall the U.S. response to Iran's 2019 attacks on Aramco oil facilities, which did not result in retaliation, highlighting a perceived lack of commitment from the U.S. to defend its allies. As a result, Saudi Arabia may seek a formal defense pact with the next Trump administration, contingent on Israel's recognition.
Such a defense agreement would require Senate ratification, which may be difficult to achieve without Saudi recognition of Israel. Consequently, Gulf states are likely to continue balancing their relationships, contemplating long-term shifts in power dynamics as U.S. involvement in the region evolves.
Ultimately, the Trump administration will need to navigate a complex and transformed Middle Eastern landscape.