Taiwan’s president embarked on a diplomatic mission on Saturday to strengthen ties with three Pacific Island nations, which are crucial allies in Taiwan's efforts to counteract Chinese influence. Lai Ching-te is set to visit the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which collectively represent a quarter of the few countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Since the 1970s, many nations have shifted their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, which claims Taiwan as part of its territory and demands that countries sever ties with Taipei to establish relations with Beijing. Lai’s weeklong trip comes amid uncertainties regarding the foreign policy direction of President-elect Donald J. Trump, who has previously urged Taiwan to increase military spending and has expressed concerns over its semiconductor industry dominance.
Experts suggest that Taiwan must leverage every possible international advantage, particularly from its small Pacific allies, whose combined population is approximately 67,000, compared to Taiwan's over 23 million. These nations are members of the United Nations, while Taiwan remains largely excluded from such international bodies.
According to Ian Tsung-yen Chen, a professor specializing in Asia-Pacific relations, Taiwan benefits from goodwill shown to these diplomatic partners, as they can advocate for Taiwan in international forums where it lacks representation.
In addition to the Pacific nations, Lai will spend two nights in Hawaii and make a brief stop in Guam. His trip has already faced criticism from Beijing, which may respond with increased military activities around Taiwan and public denunciations of Lai's visit.
Chinese officials argue that Taiwanese leaders’ transit through the U.S. violates diplomatic agreements, while U.S. officials maintain that these visits are customary. Although Lai will not visit the continental U.S., his trip aims to bolster Taiwan's diplomatic presence, particularly in the Pacific Islands Forum, a key regional diplomatic gathering.
Lai emphasized the importance of engaging with the world and noted that the three Pacific allies support Taiwan’s participation in various international forums. Experts believe that these nations can help ensure Taiwan's voice is heard in the Pacific Islands Forum, especially as geopolitical tensions rise.
In recent years, China has successfully lured away several of Taiwan's diplomatic partners through aid and investment, aiming to diminish Taiwan's global standing. Following Lai's election victory, China announced that Nauru had shifted its diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing, continuing a trend that has seen other Pacific nations make similar moves.
As Pacific Island nations grapple with the impacts of climate change and geopolitical rivalries, experts note that the competition between China and Taiwan complicates their situation. The Lowy Institute's recent survey indicated that Taiwan has fallen out of the top ten bilateral aid donors to the region, reflecting the consequences of diplomatic shifts.
Despite these challenges, Taiwan's remaining allies in the Pacific maintain strong ties with the U.S. and Australia, which may deter them from switching allegiance to China. The Marshall Islands and Palau benefit from U.S. economic support, while Tuvalu has recently strengthened its relationship with Australia, providing stability to their diplomatic ties with Taiwan.