President Vladimir V. Putin has officially lowered Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a strategic move timed to respond to recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory using American long-range missiles. This change was enacted through a decree signed by Putin, which revises Russia’s nuclear doctrine as previously outlined in his televised remarks in September.
The timing of the announcement coincided with news that President Biden had authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles for strikes within Russia. Dmitri S. Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, reiterated that Russia “reserves the right” to use nuclear weapons in response to conventional attacks that pose a “critical threat” to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
On the same day, Ukraine's military reported hitting ammunition warehouses in Russia's Bryansk region, with Russia claiming that six U.S. missiles were used in the attack. This would mark the first instance of Ukraine employing the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) against targets inside Russia, although these claims remain unverified.
The newly revised doctrine states that Russia could resort to nuclear arms if attacked by a nation supported by a nuclear power. This suggests that Russia may consider using nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian actions backed by the U.S., potentially targeting both Ukraine and American facilities.
The document specifies that aggression against Russia or its allies by a non-nuclear state, with support from a nuclear state, would be viewed as a joint attack. Peskov highlighted this aspect of the doctrine as significant.
Previously, Russia's nuclear doctrine primarily focused on deterring nuclear-armed states, with a higher threshold for conventional attacks that could trigger nuclear responses. Peskov emphasized that the aim of nuclear deterrence is to ensure potential adversaries recognize the inevitability of retaliation against aggression.
Despite the heightened rhetoric, the situation in Ukraine appears to be favoring Russian forces, which are advancing in eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine faces challenges in recruitment and morale. Additionally, Putin's recent diplomatic engagements have indicated a shift in geopolitical dynamics.
Since the onset of the invasion in February 2022, Putin has leveraged the threat of nuclear capabilities to deter Western military support for Ukraine, achieving limited success as the U.S. and its allies have provided substantial military aid. However, Putin has drawn a new line regarding the use of Western missiles by Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory.
Following Biden’s decision to allow the use of these missiles, Russian officials have issued strong warnings about the potential for nuclear conflict. Andrei Kartapolov, head of the defense committee in Russia’s lower house of Parliament, cautioned that Biden’s actions could lead to catastrophic consequences.
Dmitri A. Medvedev, former Russian president and current vice chairman of Putin’s security council, stated that the new doctrine permits a retaliatory strike with weapons of mass destruction against Ukraine and NATO facilities if Ukraine uses NATO-supplied missiles in attacks on Russia.