A senior NATO military official indicated on Saturday that any peace agreement negotiated by President-elect Donald J. Trump that allows President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to claim victory in Ukraine would undermine U.S. interests.
In an interview at a European defense summit in Prague, Adm. Rob Bauer, the Dutch chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, stated, “If you allow a nation like Russia to win, to come out of this as the victor, then what does it mean for other autocratic states in the world where the U.S. has also interests?” He emphasized that the situation in Ukraine is significant, but it also has broader implications.
Mr. Trump has claimed he could end the war in Ukraine swiftly, although he has not detailed how. A settlement proposed by Vice President-elect JD Vance in September aligns with Kremlin interests, suggesting that Russia retain captured territory and that Ukraine be barred from joining NATO.
Karoline Leavitt, a spokeswoman for Mr. Trump’s transition team, asserted that he was re-elected because Americans trust him to lead and restore global peace through strength. She stated that he would take necessary actions upon returning to the White House.
Mr. Trump has criticized the over $100 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine since February 2022, primarily in military support, and previously blamed President Volodymyr Zelensky for the invasion that Mr. Trump described as “a loser.”
Admiral Bauer refrained from commenting on the incoming administration's proposals, expressing a desire to observe Mr. Trump's actions upon his return. He cautioned against jumping to conclusions based on previous statements.
NATO was established in 1949 to counter the Soviet threat, and Mr. Putin has consistently warned against NATO's expansion near Russian borders. The U.S. has been a founding member of NATO, although Mr. Trump previously suggested the possibility of withdrawing from the alliance and criticized other members for not meeting defense spending obligations.
Admiral Bauer also highlighted the geopolitical risks of North Korea providing military support to Russia, stating that this could embolden other authoritarian regimes to disregard international norms regarding territorial integrity and sanctions. He noted that China's lack of intervention to prevent North Korea's actions poses a “dangerous situation for the United States.”
The three-day summit in Prague, organized by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, focused on enhancing European national militaries and the defense industry. Concerns about a potential reduction in U.S. support for Ukraine have led to calls for Europe to reduce its reliance on American security guarantees.
While attendees were cautious about predicting Mr. Trump's policies, there was a consensus that Europe should prepare for potential challenges. President Petr Pavel of the Czech Republic remarked on the need for closer collaboration across Europe, cautioning that any deal Mr. Trump negotiates may not align with European or Ukrainian interests.
Mr. Trump and President Zelensky recently held a phone conversation, which included tech billionaire Elon Musk, whose company Starlink has been crucial for Ukraine's military efforts.
Officials in Prague agreed on the necessity for Europe to enhance its defense capabilities and develop its own weapons, despite concerns over the financial implications amid rising economic deficits and potential tariffs from a Trump administration.
NATO countries in Europe have increased defense spending by 50 percent over the past decade, with over 23 of NATO’s 32 members now allocating at least 2 percent of their GDP to defense, a rise from just six countries in 2021. Many officials suggested that allies should aim for spending levels of 3 to 4 percent in the coming years.
Admiral Bauer noted that Mr. Trump’s previous demands had prompted NATO members to meet the 2 percent spending threshold, alongside the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The I.I.S.S. report also highlighted deficiencies in Europe’s capacity to produce sufficient ammunition and weaponry quickly. Douglas R. Bush, the U.S. Army’s top acquisition official, acknowledged challenges in meeting production goals, stating that U.S. producers are expected to manufacture up to 55,000 shells of 155-millimeter artillery ammunition monthly by year-end, below the previously projected 80,000.
Mr. Bush mentioned that while production is on track to reach 100,000 rounds monthly by the end of 2025, the U.S. relies on ammunition components from European countries and is procuring missiles from Sweden, indicating strong ties with Europe that are unlikely to change.
“Our relationship with Europe is not four years at a time, it is enduring,” Mr. Bush stated.