With just one day remaining until Election Day, the latest Times/Siena polls indicate a tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris holds a narrow lead in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in Arizona. Both candidates are closely contesting Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, with all results falling within the margin of sampling error, indicating no clear frontrunner.
Nate Cohn, the Times chief political analyst, noted that typically, final polls suggest a clear favorite, but this election is an exception. The overall polling results have remained largely unchanged since the previous wave, although the gap between Northern and Sun Belt battlegrounds has narrowed, with Harris performing better among young, Black, and Hispanic voters. Trump has gained support among white voters without a degree, his most reliable demographic.
The poll reveals a significant gender gap, with Trump leading men in battleground states by 16 percentage points, while Harris has a similar advantage among women. For the first time, abortion has emerged as the most important issue for women in their voting decisions.
In Pennsylvania, a state characterized by two major Democratic-voting cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, a substantial portion of the electorate resides outside these urban areas, in smaller cities and rural regions. Historically, these areas were strongholds for the Democratic Party due to their industrial base, but as industry has declined, the political landscape has shifted rightward. Currently, a slight majority of voters in Pennsylvania are white individuals without college degrees, a demographic that predominantly supports Trump.
In international news, Iran's supreme leader has issued a warning to Israel and the U.S., stating they will face a "crushing response" to recent strikes against Iran. Following initial downplaying of the damage from Israeli attacks, Iranian officials have adopted a more aggressive stance. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as commander in chief, has the authority to order retaliatory strikes on Israel.
In Lebanon, Israeli naval commandos conducted a significant operation, capturing a senior Hezbollah operative, marking a notable incursion into Lebanese territory. Meanwhile, in Gaza City, nearly 94,000 children received a second dose of the polio vaccine, an effort that had been delayed due to ongoing Israeli bombardment.
In Botswana, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party faced a historic defeat in national elections, losing its majority in Parliament for the first time since independence in 1966. This shift reflects a growing discontent among young voters, who prioritize issues such as corruption, job creation, and respect for civil liberties over the historical credentials of liberation parties.