On his path to the presidency, President-elect Donald J. Trump consistently targeted Mexico with threats of extreme tariffs on exports and mass deportations, as well as military strikes against drug cartels. However, Mexico's leaders are reportedly viewing Trump's return to the White House as an opportunity, according to several current and former officials.
Mexico is focusing on its ability to negotiate with a deal maker like Trump, and while the government is taking his threats seriously, officials believe the country is better prepared than during his first term. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has stated her intention to contact Trump's transition team ahead of the inauguration to discuss key issues.
To mitigate potential extreme proposals from the new administration, the Mexican government has been developing plans related to trade, security, and border issues. Sheinbaum emphasized the importance of communication and maintaining good relations with the U.S.
Some analysts suggest that Mexico's seemingly positive messaging could be a strategy to calm markets and downplay risks. Sheinbaum's team had been preparing for Trump's potential victory well before her election in June, researching former Trump officials and reaching out to influential figures within his network.
Marcelo Ebrard, Sheinbaum's economy minister, mentioned that Mexico would resist any form of intervention. He cited the importance of high-profile arrests of cartel leaders to satisfy Trump's demands, suggesting that increased pressure on security forces could benefit Mexico's economy by staving off tariffs.
While the specifics of Trump's deportation plans remain uncertain, officials are aware that large-scale expulsions of undocumented Mexicans could present challenges. However, Mexico's recent enforcement efforts have reduced border traffic, potentially easing pressure on the country if a crackdown occurs.
Data indicates that migrant shelters in Mexico are currently only operating at about half capacity, allowing room to accommodate potential influxes of deportees. The Mexican government also views negotiating trade deals as a pathway to avoid tariffs, arguing that Trump may find it economically impractical to engage in a trade war with both Mexico and China simultaneously.
With the nomination of China hawks to key positions in Trump's cabinet, Mexican officials feel the administration may focus on confronting Beijing rather than Mexico. Economists argue that Trump's return could be economically beneficial for Mexico, with the potential for increased relocation of manufacturing from China to Mexico.
On migration, Mexican officials expect stringent demands from Trump, including handling a potential increase in deportations and reinstating the "Remain in Mexico" policy. However, they highlight their experience in managing deportee reintegration.
Former officials noted that the influx of migrants during the Biden administration posed challenges for Mexico, which had to address enforcement issues and deal with enhanced smuggling networks. Experts suggest that Trump's approach could deter new migrant arrivals temporarily.
Mexico's migration officials express confidence in their ability to manage deportations, recalling historical precedents, including the Obama administration's significant deportation rates. Sheinbaum assured that remittances from migrants would be defended, emphasizing a commitment to supporting families in Mexico.