Mexico’s government indicated on Monday that it would retaliate with trade restrictions if President-elect Donald J. Trump enacted his proposed tariffs on Mexican exports to the United States. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stated, “If you put 25 percent tariffs on me, I have to react with tariffs,” highlighting Mexico's ability to respond effectively.
The remarks from Ebrard, who is expected to be a key negotiator with the Trump administration, reflect the growing tensions between the two nations following the U.S. presidential election. Trump had previously pledged to impose a 25 percent tariff on all Mexican goods unless Mexico addressed issues regarding migrants and drugs.
If Mexico does not meet Trump’s conditions, he suggested that tariffs could escalate to as high as 100 percent. Such measures could significantly impact Mexico's economy, which heavily relies on trade with the U.S., exporting approximately 80 percent of its goods to its northern neighbor.
Conversely, various sectors in the United States, including agriculture and manufacturing, also depend on exports to Mexico, which became the largest trading partner of the U.S. last year, surpassing China. In 2022, U.S. exports to Mexico accounted for nearly 16 percent of total American exports, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.
Valeria Moy, director of the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness, warned that “a tariff war doesn’t end well” for either country, emphasizing that negotiation is preferable to imposing further tariffs.
Newly elected President Claudia Sheinbaum has adopted a different approach, expressing a desire to engage with Trump’s transition team to foster communication and coordination. She described a recent phone call with Trump as “very cordial.”
The current situation evokes memories of the previous Trump administration, which also implemented tariffs on imports from several countries, including Mexico. Following the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018, Mexico retaliated by taxing various U.S. products, impacting approximately $2.6 billion in U.S. agricultural exports.
When Trump threatened escalating tariffs on Mexican imports during Andrés Manuel López Obrador's presidency, Mexico initially adopted a humanitarian approach to migration but later increased enforcement measures under U.S. pressure, which some advocates argue compromised migrant rights.
Despite the initial tensions, the relationship between López Obrador and Trump improved as Mexico enhanced its immigration enforcement, leading to reduced tariff threats from the U.S.
When asked about the government's strategy in response to Trump's threats, Ebrard recalled his past experiences, emphasizing the need for a calm and intelligent approach.