Voters in the Republic of Ireland are scheduled to participate in a general election on November 29, following an announcement by Prime Minister Simon Harris regarding the dissolution of the lower house of Parliament. This decision concludes months of speculation about the election's timing.
The election must occur before the current coalition government's five-year mandate ends in March 2025. With Harris's center-right party, Fine Gael, experiencing a resurgence in polling support, the announcement aligns with expectations among political observers.
Since gaining independence from Britain over a century ago, the Irish government has predominantly been led by two center-right parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. In the last election in February 2020, Fianna Fáil secured the most seats but did not achieve an outright majority. Sinn Féin, a left-wing nationalist party, unexpectedly gained significant support, winning the popular vote and finishing second in parliamentary seats.
Fianna Fáil formed a coalition government with Fine Gael and the Green Party, agreeing to alternate the role of prime minister. Leo Varadkar, the then-leader of Fine Gael, resigned in March, leading to Simon Harris's ascension as party leader and taoiseach.
Under the leadership of Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Féin has sought to redefine its political identity after its historical association with the Irish Republican Army. Despite its success in the 2020 elections and a strong performance in Northern Ireland's 2022 assembly elections, recent polls indicate a decline in Sinn Féin's public support.
The latest opinion poll shows Fine Gael leading with 26 percent, followed by Fianna Fáil at 20 percent and Sinn Féin at 18 percent, a drop from nearly 30 percent earlier in the year.
Key issues influencing voter decision-making include the high cost of living, healthcare funding, and a pressing housing crisis, which has left many, particularly younger adults, struggling to afford homes. Analysts attribute the housing crisis to insufficient investment in public housing by successive governments.
Immigration has also emerged as a significant concern, with the number of arrivals reaching the highest levels since 2007. This issue has become a contentious topic within Irish society, with far-right groups leveraging it to incite discontent, highlighted by a far-right riot in Dublin last year.
The election results may take time to finalize due to Ireland's proportional representation electoral system, which requires voters to rank candidates by preference. This system can lead to extended counting periods, as seen after the 2020 general election.
If no single party achieves a clear majority, the process of forming a government could extend into the new year.