Iranians Speculate on Potential Changes Under a Trump Victory


The last time Donald J. Trump was in office, his policies had significant repercussions for the Islamic Republic of Iran. As president, Mr. Trump withdrew from a nuclear agreement that had begun easing sanctions in exchange for Iran limiting its nuclear activities. He imposed an additional 1,500 sanctions, particularly targeting Iran’s oil sales and banking sectors, which severely impacted the Iranian economy. Furthermore, he ordered the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, a prominent Iranian military figure designated as a terrorist by the United States.

Despite this history, some Iranians view Mr. Trump as a potentially better option than Kamala Harris in the upcoming election. In conversations with residents of Tehran, many expressed that Mr. Trump might bring about changes that could benefit Iran, contrasting with what they perceive as a continuation of the Biden administration's policies under Ms. Harris.

Many interviewees noted Mr. Trump’s aversion to foreign wars, citing his administration's negotiations for the withdrawal from Afghanistan and his recent statements regarding conflicts in Lebanon and Ukraine. Some believe that a Trump presidency could lead to a reduction in hostilities involving Israel and Gaza.

Iran's support for armed groups across the Middle East, particularly Hamas and Hezbollah, has drawn significant criticism from the U.S. Following recent escalations, including attacks between Iran and Israel, the region remains tense. In a recent interview, Ms. Harris identified Iran as a primary adversary, while Mr. Trump has suggested aggressive military actions against Iranian nuclear sites.

Among the more conservative Iranians interviewed, there was a general consensus that the identity of the U.S. president would not significantly alter Iran's political landscape. However, others argued that U.S. policies have a profound impact on daily life in Iran, with some stating that the American election holds more significance for them than their own presidential elections.

Young Iranians expressed feelings of isolation due to sanctions imposed during Mr. Trump’s presidency, which hindered their ability to travel and access information. The reformist newspaper Shargh has been actively covering the U.S. election, emphasizing the importance of understanding the electoral process and the implications of the candidates' policies.

While Mr. Trump remains a prominent figure in the minds of many Iranians, there is uncertainty regarding Ms. Harris's potential policies. Some believe that her presidency would foster more interaction between the U.S. and Iran, while others fear that Mr. Trump’s approach would lead to increased confrontation.

Experts suggest that while some Iranians may hope for a more favorable relationship under a Trump presidency, they may not fully grasp the complexities of his administration's potential policies and the influence of his advisers. The likelihood of meaningful negotiations with Tehran remains uncertain, as the Iranian leadership is cautious based on past experiences with Mr. Trump.





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