In mid-November, Iran sent a senior official to Beirut to encourage Hezbollah to accept a cease-fire with Israel. Concurrently, Iran’s U.N. ambassador met with Elon Musk, an outreach to President-elect Donald J. Trump’s inner circle. Additionally, Iran is set to hold discussions in Geneva with European nations regarding various issues, including its nuclear program.
This diplomatic shift represents a significant change from late October, when Iran was preparing for a large retaliatory attack on Israel. A deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps had previously stated, “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years.”
The recent change in Iran's tone is attributed to both domestic and international developments. Five Iranian officials, including a Revolutionary Guards member, indicated that the recalibration was influenced by Trump's victory in the Nov. 5 election, raising concerns about an unpredictable leader known for his “maximum pressure” policy on Iran.
Moreover, Israel's recent military actions in Lebanon against Hezbollah, a key Iranian ally, alongside economic challenges at home, including a declining currency and looming energy shortages, have prompted Iran to adopt a more conciliatory approach. The officials, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, noted that Iran suspended plans to strike Israel following Trump's election to avoid escalating tensions with the incoming administration.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, welcomed the truce between Hezbollah and Israel, stating that while Tehran retains the right to respond to Israel’s airstrikes, it will consider regional developments such as the cease-fire in Lebanon.
Sanam Vakil, the Middle East director for a British policy research group, remarked that Iran's shift in tone is aimed at protecting its interests amid changing circumstances in Washington and the regional geopolitical landscape.
The internal dynamics of Iran's governance, characterized by factional rivalries, contribute to mixed messages to external audiences. The recent election of moderate Masoud Pezeshkian as president, following the death of hard-liner Ebrahim Raisi, has introduced a mandate for economic and social reforms, as well as engagement with the West.
Shortly after the U.S. election, Iran’s U.N. ambassador met with Musk to discuss reducing tensions with the Trump administration. This meeting was met with mixed reactions domestically, with reformists welcoming it while conservatives labeled the ambassador a traitor.
In response to backlash over the Musk meeting, Iran’s foreign ministry later denied its occurrence. Following a U.N. agency's censure of Iran for obstructing international nuclear monitoring, Tehran reaffirmed its commitment to accelerate its nuclear program while expressing readiness for productive engagement.
Several senior Iranian officials have indicated openness to negotiations with the Trump administration regarding nuclear and regional issues, a notable shift from previous positions that rejected dialogue with Washington.
As tensions in Gaza persist, Iran had previously maintained that it would not cease attacks on Israel. However, the significant losses suffered by Hezbollah have raised concerns in Tehran, leading to a reevaluation of its stance. Iranian media reported growing discontent among displaced Shia Lebanese, who have traditionally looked to Iran for support.
In a candid assessment, a conservative researcher acknowledged that Iran underestimated Israel's military capabilities and criticized the perception of war as trivial. In response, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sent senior adviser Ali Larijani to Beirut to convey a message to Hezbollah leaders advocating for a cease-fire and promising support for rebuilding efforts.
Shortly thereafter, Lebanon announced that Hezbollah had agreed to a condition it had previously rejected, which involved keeping its forces away from the Israeli border. Meanwhile, Iran faces increasing economic and energy crises, with the government implementing daily power cuts that have sparked public outrage.
Pezeshkian has emphasized the need for transparency regarding the energy situation, acknowledging that Iran's infrastructure cannot meet current demands. Iran plans to send a seasoned diplomat to Geneva to engage with officials from Britain, France, and Germany regarding its nuclear program.
Naser Imani, an analyst close to the Iranian government, noted a prevailing desire among officials and the public to reduce tensions with the West, viewing cooperation not as a defeat but as a form of transactional diplomacy conducted from a position of strength.