The largest offensive in years by Syrian opposition fighters against government forces has raised concerns about the potential resurgence of a civil war that has largely been stagnant for several years.
The new rebel initiative commenced on Wednesday in Aleppo Province in northwestern Syria. By Thursday, opposition forces had made significant advances, capturing several villages, as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitoring group.
The objective of the offensive is to halt assaults by government forces and their Iran-backed militia allies, according to a rebel commander.
Over two days of intense clashes, more than 150 combatants from both sides have been killed, including nearly 100 from the rebel factions that initiated the offensive and 54 regime soldiers, according to the Observatory. The organization collects information from a network of activists and other sources across Syria, and its casualty figures have not been independently verified.
Additionally, more than a dozen civilians have reportedly died due to airstrikes conducted by Syrian and Russian forces, as stated by the White Helmets, a rescue group operating in opposition-controlled areas. Russia and Iran have consistently supported President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in its efforts to suppress the rebels.
The offensive brings together various rebel factions that represent the remnants of a once-diverse coalition of opposition groups. Since 2011, these factions have fought to oust President al-Assad and previously controlled significant portions of the country.
The primary group involved is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has historical ties to the terrorist organization Al Qaeda and currently governs most of the northwestern territory still held by opposition forces. Several Turkish-backed rebel groups have also joined the offensive, according to commanders and the Observatory.
Despite their common goal, the various rebel factions have frequently engaged in internal conflicts, which has hindered their ability to effectively challenge the Syrian military.
In a video statement, Lt. Col. Hassan Abdulghany, military commander of the opposition’s operations room, emphasized that the offensive aims to counter Syrian airstrikes and other attacks on opposition-held areas. He stated, “To push back their fire from our people, this operation is not a choice. It is an obligation to defend our people and their land.”
Iran has been a steadfast supporter of the Syrian government throughout the conflict, providing military advisers and backing militias to defend the regime.
In response, Syrian state media reported that government forces were confronting a “large-scale terrorist attack” on various locations. The government has consistently labeled all opposition as “terrorists” and claimed to be responding “in cooperation with friendly forces,” without specifying who those forces are. They also asserted that they have inflicted significant losses on the rebels.
While Syria has not directly participated in recent regional conflicts, its territory has long served as a battleground for international powers. Israel has conducted numerous strikes in Syria, targeting Iran-backed militants, including Hezbollah, particularly following the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel from Gaza.
The Israeli military has indicated that some strikes aim to disrupt the flow of weapons and intelligence between Hezbollah and Iran. In April, a deadly Israeli strike on part of the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus resulted in the deaths of several senior Iranian commanders.
Recent reports from Iranian media indicate that a commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards was killed during the rebels' new offensive.
Over a decade of civil war, proxy conflicts, and the rise of the Islamic State has fragmented Syria into various zones of control. The government currently holds over 60 percent of the country, including most major cities. However, this was not always the case, as the government lost significant territory during the height of the civil war.
The situation shifted in 2015 when Russia intervened militarily to support President al-Assad. Nonetheless, large areas remain outside government control, including opposition-held regions in the northwest and the northeast, which is primarily governed by a Kurdish-led militia backed by the United States.
The opposition-controlled northwest includes parts of Idlib and Aleppo provinces, housing approximately 5 million people, more than half of whom have been displaced from other areas in Syria. Although the Islamic State lost its last territorial stronghold in Syria in 2019, it is believed to maintain sleeper cells in the vast desert, occasionally launching attacks against government forces and civilians.