Hezbollah has long proclaimed itself as the sole defender of Lebanon against Israel, presenting an image of military strength and a network of regional militias supported by Iran. However, following 13 months of conflict, the organization is now facing challenges to this narrative.
On Wednesday, Hezbollah entered a 60-day cease-fire with Israel, which many observers view as a defeat for the group. This truce aims to establish a foundation for a more enduring peace after three months of intense Israeli military operations that have disrupted Hezbollah’s operations and leadership.
Intelligence operations by Israel have led to the assassination of numerous senior Hezbollah leaders, including its long-time secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. The Israeli military has targeted the group's strongholds, leading to significant displacement among the population and widespread destruction of homes and infrastructure.
Hezbollah's unilateral decision to initiate rocket fire at Israel—igniting a conflict that has become Lebanon's deadliest in decades—has resulted in increasing isolation for the group both domestically and regionally, leaving the country facing substantial reconstruction costs.
While some opponents of Hezbollah believe the war has diminished its influence in Lebanese politics, the group's military presence remains substantial, and it retains the loyalty of many within the Shiite community.
Following the cease-fire, many Hezbollah supporters returned to inspect damage in their neighborhoods, expressing a sentiment of victory despite the destruction. Some emphasized their ongoing support for Hezbollah, viewing survival as a form of triumph.
Historically, Hezbollah has positioned itself as a powerful military force, significantly impacting regional dynamics. However, the recent conflict has seen its allies unable to provide meaningful support, which has raised questions about the credibility of Iran's broader network of militias.
In negotiating the cease-fire, Hezbollah made significant concessions. The agreement lacks stipulations for Israel to halt its attacks on Gaza, which was a primary demand of Hezbollah's leadership during the conflict. Additionally, the involvement of the United States in overseeing the cease-fire marks a shift in the regional power balance.
Hezbollah's deterrent capability against Israeli actions has been weakened, potentially altering Iran's strategic positioning in the region. As tensions persist between Iran and Israel, the conflict has revealed vulnerabilities for both sides.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah faces potential backlash from the Lebanese public, who may hold the group responsible for the war's toll on the country. The organization must now navigate the internal dynamics and dissatisfaction stemming from its role in the conflict.
The war has displaced approximately 1.2 million people, primarily from Hezbollah-affiliated regions, leading to humanitarian challenges. The economic impact of the conflict is severe, with estimates of physical and economic damage reaching $8.5 billion, complicating reconstruction efforts.
Despite these challenges, Hezbollah's leadership is framing the cease-fire as a victory, asserting that their military capabilities remain intact. They have pledged to assist displaced individuals in returning to their homes and rebuilding once hostilities cease.