A week after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition disbanded over the upcoming budget, an agreement has been reached between his party and the main opposition, the conservative Christian Democratic Union, to conduct a snap election on February 23.
This decision, confirmed on Tuesday, comes as all parties ramp up their campaigns for the early election, which is set to occur approximately seven months ahead of the original schedule.
Last week, Scholz dismissed his finance minister, Christian Lindner, leader of the pro-business Free Democratic Party, effectively dissolving the coalition and causing significant political upheaval in Germany.
Although Scholz had initially suggested elections would likely occur in March, the opposition called for an earlier date, arguing that the chancellor would struggle to govern effectively with a minority government lacking sufficient support in Parliament to enact new laws.
The upcoming election date comes as German political leaders prepare for a vigorous campaign focused on revitalizing a struggling economy and anticipating the second term of President-elect Donald J. Trump.
In his first televised interview since the coalition's collapse, Scholz expressed his intention to campaign for re-election, stating, “I would like to be re-elected.” He acknowledged that his Social Democrats are currently polling around 16 percent and cautioned that the election might not unfold as anticipated.
Historically, German political parties have required coalition partners to secure a parliamentary majority. If the Social Democrats do not significantly increase their vote share, they risk becoming a junior partner in any coalition, jeopardizing Scholz’s chances for a second term as chancellor.
In the wake of the coalition's dissolution, another coalition partner, Robert Habeck, the Green economic minister, announced his candidacy for the chancellery, further indicating preparations for an active campaign.
Lindner of the Free Democratic Party, currently polling at three to four percent, expressed his ambition to secure at least 10 percent of voter support in the upcoming election. He hopes his party can position itself as a junior coalition partner in the next government to facilitate the implementation of his proposals.
Since the coalition's breakdown, Lindner has asserted that he was dismissed by Scholz due to his refusal to approve additional spending that would have violated Germany’s strict borrowing limits.
The debate over the election's timing intensified even before Scholz's new minority-government cabinet was sworn in last week. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democrats, had insisted that Scholz present a vote of confidence to Parliament this week, which would have triggered a new election potentially in January.
However, members of Scholz’s party cautioned that an early election could pose challenges. Ruth Brand, the federal election commissioner, warned that preparations for the election could not be expedited, highlighting potential shortages of ballot paper.
Johannes Fechner, a parliamentary leader of the Social Democrats, emphasized the necessity of considering practical aspects of election organization when determining the election date.
Scholz’s chief of staff, Wolfgang Schmidt, argued that holding elections during the Christmas season could set a precedent for future elections occurring at that time.
Despite initial resistance, pressure mounted, and during his interview, Scholz indicated he was open to an earlier election, stating, “If that’s how everyone feels, it’s not a problem for me to bring the confidence vote before Christmas.” If he fails the confidence vote in Parliament, which is likely, it would pave the way for the February 23 election.