Europe has been grappling with unauthorized migration for years, leading to the implementation of increasingly stringent policies. Recent data indicate a significant decline in migrant crossings into European Union countries from the peaks seen last year.
Despite the reduction in arrivals, anti-immigrant sentiment continues to rise, prompting leaders to adopt or consider more severe measures that mainstream political parties would have previously opposed.
The sharp decrease in border crossings has not lessened the political significance of migration issues, echoing similar trends observed in the United States.
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is attempting to redirect migrants rescued in the Mediterranean to Albania. Germany, known for its welcoming stance during the 2015 migration wave, has expanded patrols across all its land borders, while Poland is set to pass legislation that would temporarily restrict the right of new arrivals to apply for asylum.
These crackdowns are fueled by xenophobic, anti-immigrant parties that exploit fears regarding unchecked migration and national identity erosion. Many Europeans are increasingly concerned about the manageability of migrant inflows, particularly since approximately 80 percent of failed asylum seekers do not leave the EU, according to official statistics.
Political leaders facing upcoming elections are responding, with Germany's Christian Democrats advocating for stricter immigration controls, contrasting sharply with the party's approach during Merkel's tenure.
"The far right is the mainstream when it comes to migration now," noted a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Various controversial strategies have been proposed and trialed to curb unauthorized migration, including financial agreements with countries like Libya and Turkey to prevent migrants from departing in unsafe vessels.
Notably, a 2018 EU report indicated that sending asylum seekers to third countries without processing their applications would violate EU and international law. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, hailed Italy's proposal to send migrants to Albania as "out-of-the-box thinking," despite ongoing legal challenges.
Other discussions among European leaders include compensating non-EU countries for processing asylum requests and handling deportations of unsuccessful applicants, with many human rights advocates debating the legality of such plans.
The UK attempted a controversial policy to send asylum seekers to Rwanda, which was ultimately deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. Similar tightening of border controls is being pursued in Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands.
Recent policing efforts in Germany, such as random checks at border crossings, show a decreased number of unauthorized migrant stops compared to last year, attributed to Poland's intensified border measures.
Behind the backlash against migration lies a decade's worth of increasing numbers of migrants and perceived failures in governmental integration efforts. Additionally, populist parties have amplified concerns, compelling more centrist parties to adopt stricter immigration stances.
Although unauthorized crossings into the EU dropped 43 percent in the first ten months of 2023 compared to the previous year, the current figures follow a peak period during Europe's previous migration crisis.
The influx of over four million Ukrainians seeking protection post-Russia's invasion has further complicated the situation. Complicated deportation processes for denied asylum seekers contribute significantly to public frustration.
High-profile crimes involving rejected asylum seekers have intensified tensions in Germany, along with perceptions of economic strain linked to immigration, especially in regions with notable refugee populations.
Some leaders advocate for immigration as a necessary component for economic growth and to address workforce shortages, emphasizing the importance of effective management over outright restriction.
Currently, Europe is caught in a complex balancing act: addressing economic labor needs, public concerns about immigration, and adhering to established refugee protections.
In Italy, Meloni is appealing a court ruling against her outsourcing plan for migrants, which may set a precedent for future policies. The EU is also looking to establish a more equitable distribution of migrant responsibilities among member states by 2026.
In the interim, proposals similar to Meloni’s are gaining traction, although experts caution that finding countries willing to accept deportees remains a formidable challenge amid legal ambiguities.