For the past year, the United States and China have attempted to manage their rivalry to assure the world that tensions between the superpowers would not escalate into conflict. The return of President Donald J. Trump to the White House poses a potential threat to this fragile balance.
Mr. Trump is known for his unpredictability as a statesman, often mixing threats with flattery to keep his counterparts uncertain. He has pledged to impose blanket tariffs on Chinese exports and threatened duties as high as 200 percent if China were to take action regarding Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.
Despite his threats, Mr. Trump has also praised Xi Jinping, China's leader, calling him a “brilliant guy” for his control over 1.4 billion people. However, Beijing likely views Mr. Trump as committed to a fierce rivalry with China, regardless of his rhetoric.
Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, noted that Xi Jinping interprets America's intentions toward China with skepticism. While Xi may be open to a more amicable relationship with Trump, he does not expect personal rapport to lessen America's competitive stance.
Beijing's perspective is reinforced by a bipartisan consensus in the United States on confronting China. The competitive approach initiated by Trump during his first term, including the trade war and increased support for Taiwan, has continued under President Biden, with U.S. pressure reportedly intensifying.
Mr. Xi has accused the Biden administration of unfairly containing China, citing deepening security arrangements between the U.S. and its allies, restrictions on Chinese access to advanced technology, and sanctions related to China's support for Russia's actions in Ukraine.
While the specifics of Mr. Trump’s foreign policy agenda remain unclear until he appoints his cabinet, China appears more prepared for potential challenges compared to his first term. Recently, China has strengthened ties with American allies, easing border tensions with India and hosting senior officials from Britain and Japan. Additionally, it has lifted restrictions on Australian exports.
China has also focused on becoming more self-reliant in technology, investing significantly in its chip development and continuing military expansion. Mr. Xi recently inspected elite military units trained for operations related to Taiwan.
However, China's efforts to shield itself from potential disruptions caused by Trump could be limited by its struggling economy, which faces challenges from a property crisis. Analysts suggest that China may have fewer options for retaliation in a trade conflict than it did during Trump's first administration.
Some voices in China advocate for restraint, emphasizing the need for greater competition preparedness while avoiding accidental military conflicts in the South China Sea and Taiwan. Others argue that China has become more adept at countering U.S. strategies, adapting its approach to both Trump's and Biden's administrations.
China's response to Trump's previous aggressive diplomacy included adopting a more assertive foreign policy style known as “Wolf Warrior.” In contrast to Biden's democratic alliance-building, China has sought deeper ties with developing nations and Russia, while ramping up military exercises near Taiwan.
Despite a significant downturn in U.S.-China relations earlier in 2023, the situation stabilized over the past year, aided by diplomatic efforts from the Biden administration. The future of U.S.-China engagement under a new Trump administration will depend on his cabinet selections, which could include advisors with a more aggressive stance toward China.
Some aspects of Trump's agenda may inadvertently benefit China, as he has historically prioritized trade deals over human rights issues. His “America First” policy could also weaken U.S. alliances, potentially allowing China to expand its global influence.
It remains uncertain how China will approach negotiations with Trump in his second term. During Biden's presidency, China sought leverage through cooperation on issues like fentanyl, but it is unclear if Trump would prioritize such concessions.
As Mr. Xi congratulated Mr. Trump on his electoral victory, he reiterated Beijing's stance that confrontation would be detrimental to both nations. Xi expressed hope for a constructive relationship moving forward.
Some Chinese scholars advocate for prompt dialogue between Xi and Trump once he assumes office, emphasizing the importance of direct communication to manage differences. Wu Xinbo, a scholar at Fudan University, suggested that China should be better prepared for Trump's second term, ready for both negotiations and confrontations.