The fragile peace between Israel and Hezbollah is heavily reliant on the presence of 10,000 soldiers in the Lebanese Army. The current cease-fire, effective from Wednesday, establishes a 60-day truce during which Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from Lebanon, while Hezbollah is expected to retreat from the Lebanese border.
The agreement places significant responsibility on the Lebanese Army to ensure Hezbollah's withdrawal, a task complicated by the military's strained resources and sectarian challenges. The army is tasked with dismantling Hezbollah's military infrastructure, confiscating unauthorized weapons, and preventing arms transfers. United Nations peacekeeping forces will support the Lebanese Army in this effort.
Historically, the Lebanese Army has struggled to enforce such mandates. The cease-fire that concluded the 2006 Lebanon War also called for the army to keep Hezbollah away from the border, but Hezbollah emerged stronger in subsequent years. Despite past failures, the international community is once again placing its hopes in the Lebanese Army, with renewed efforts from the United States and other nations to train and equip the force.
Analysts express skepticism regarding the army's ability to confront Hezbollah effectively. Israel remains unconvinced, having secured a side agreement allowing for a U.S.-approved military response if the Lebanese Army fails to disarm Hezbollah. Israeli officials plan to monitor compliance through aerial surveillance.
The Lebanese Army has received substantial international support, including over $3 billion from the United States since 2006, and additional pledges from other nations. However, Hezbollah's military capabilities have long surpassed those of the Lebanese Army, complicating the situation further.
Political dynamics within Lebanon also hinder the army's effectiveness, as the government has been reluctant to grant the army a clear mandate to suppress Hezbollah, which holds significant political influence. The Lebanese Army has traditionally avoided direct confrontations with Hezbollah, fearing that such actions could destabilize the nation.
The new cease-fire agreement empowers the Lebanese Army to take decisive action against weapon-making facilities and unauthorized arms. It also mandates the deployment of 10,000 soldiers to a newly established buffer zone along the border, with current estimates indicating at least 4,000 soldiers are already present in the area.
U.S. officials have expressed confidence in the Lebanese Army's capabilities, asserting that it will regain control of its territory during the cease-fire period. The United Nations peacekeeping forces will continue to monitor the situation, providing support as needed.
Experts suggest that while the Lebanese Army may succeed in the short term, the long-term stability of these operations remains uncertain, especially given Lebanon's ongoing financial crisis. Many soldiers are seeking additional employment due to inadequate military salaries, raising concerns about the army's operational effectiveness.
International efforts to support the Lebanese Army continue, with various nations providing training, equipment, and financial assistance. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the army's crucial role in maintaining stability in Lebanon during a recent conference aimed at garnering further support.