The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has generated optimism within the Biden administration regarding the potential for creating a Palestinian state. However, the feasibility of achieving an independent Palestinian state appears increasingly remote.
In Gaza, significant death and destruction have occurred, compounded by a lack of clear Palestinian leadership. Meanwhile, Israel continues to deal with trauma stemming from the Hamas-led attack on October 7.
President Biden hopes that Sinwar's death may facilitate a temporary cease-fire in Gaza and lead to the return of Israeli hostages, potentially opening a pathway for negotiations on a two-state solution. Nonetheless, uncertainty surrounds who can effectively represent Hamas in Gaza, as well as the group's knowledge of the hostages' whereabouts and status.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has committed to continuing the conflict against Hamas while addressing threats from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and Iran. He has repeatedly dismissed the possibility of a two-state solution, relying on a coalition government that includes far-right ministers opposed to any form of Palestinian statehood.
Mkhaimar Abusada, a Gazan scholar, emphasizes that the prospect of serious negotiations for a Palestinian state is highly unlikely. He notes Netanyahu's assertions that a Palestinian state would threaten Israel's security, suggesting that the current Israeli government does not prioritize this agenda.
The Oslo Accords of the 1990s aimed to establish a framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and leading to an independent Palestinian state. However, since Hamas ousted the Palestinian Authority from Gaza in 2007, the Authority has been perceived as corrupt and ineffective, controlling only parts of the West Bank.
Amid ongoing violence, hopes for a two-state solution have diminished. Following the events of October 7 and Israel's aggressive response in Gaza, the U.S., Europe, and some Middle Eastern countries continue to advocate for a two-state solution as a means to achieve sustainable peace. Saudi Arabia, in particular, conditions its recognition of Israel on a credible path to a viable Palestinian state.
Even if Netanyahu were to shift his stance, analysts argue that the fragmented and weak Palestinian leadership would pose a significant obstacle to progress. Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, states that any agreement would need broad Palestinian leadership, including Hamas's support, which is currently lacking.
Rabbani criticizes the insistence of the U.S. and European nations on pursuing a two-state solution, arguing that it fails to acknowledge the leadership vacuum and the radicalizing effects of the ongoing conflict on Palestinian politics.
Additionally, the growth of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and increased Israeli raids following the October 7 attack further complicate the situation. Political science professor Ali Jarbawi asserts that belief in a two-state solution is waning among those living in occupied territories.
The death of Sinwar may significantly impact Palestinian politics, as Hamas acknowledges its severe setback and its inability to govern Gaza independently. However, Hamas retains the capacity to disrupt any unfavorable arrangements.
Discussions among Israeli, American, Saudi, Egyptian, and Gulf officials are underway to potentially install Salam Fayyad as prime minister for Gaza's reconstruction post-conflict. Fayyad previously served from 2007 to 2013 but was ousted due to policy disagreements with the Palestinian Authority's president, Mahmoud Abbas.
While Fayyad's leadership could attract substantial Arab financial aid, concerns arise that he may be viewed as a representative of American interests, complicating his acceptance among Palestinians. Analysts also highlight how external influences have exacerbated factionalism within Palestinian politics, undermining unity.
Despite Hamas's increased popularity following its actions against Israel, the organization’s perspectives cannot be overlooked by Abbas's government. Former U.S. negotiator Aaron David Miller notes that the gaps between Israeli and Palestinian positions on a two-state solution remain as wide as they were two decades ago, further complicating the quest for resolution.