The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, has sparked optimism within the Biden administration regarding the potential for establishing a Palestinian state. However, the reality on the ground suggests that this goal may be further out of reach than ever.
In Gaza, the aftermath of violence has resulted in significant death and destruction, compounded by a lack of cohesive Palestinian leadership. Israel is also dealing with the repercussions of the Hamas-led attack on October 7.
President Biden hopes that Sinwar's death could lead to a temporary cease-fire in Gaza, the return of Israeli hostages, and a renewed focus on negotiations for a two-state solution. Nonetheless, uncertainty remains regarding who can effectively represent Hamas in Gaza and the status of the hostages.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has committed to continuing military operations against Hamas while also addressing threats from Hezbollah and Iran. He has consistently dismissed the possibility of a two-state solution, relying on a coalition government that includes far-right ministers opposed to Palestinian statehood.
Experts, such as Gazan scholar Mkhaimar Abusada, express skepticism about the likelihood of serious negotiations for a Palestinian state under the current Israeli leadership. Abusada notes that Netanyahu views a Palestinian state as a threat to Israel's security, especially with the radical elements in power.
The Oslo Accords of the 1990s aimed to establish an independent Palestinian state, but the Palestinian Authority, which was meant to govern parts of the West Bank and Gaza, has lost control of Gaza to Hamas and is perceived as ineffective and corrupt.
In light of recent violence, the U.S. and European nations have renewed calls for a two-state solution as a means to achieve lasting peace. Saudi Arabia has emphasized that any recognition of Israel must be contingent upon a viable Palestinian state.
However, analysts argue that even if Netanyahu were to shift his stance, the fragmented Palestinian leadership would hinder progress. Mouin Rabbani, a nonresident fellow at the Center for Conflict and Humanitarian Studies, highlights the need for a unified Palestinian leadership to support any agreement.
Rabbani criticizes the insistence on a two-state solution by the U.S. and Europe, suggesting it fails to acknowledge the current realities that complicate achieving this goal.
The expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and increased military actions following the October 7 attack further complicate the situation. Political science professor Ali Jarbawi notes that many in the occupied territories have lost faith in the viability of a two-state solution.
Jarbawi also points out that the death of Sinwar and the weakening of Hamas could significantly impact Palestinian politics. While Hamas acknowledges its challenges, it retains the ability to obstruct any unfavorable arrangements.
Discussions among Israeli, American, Saudi, Egyptian, and Gulf officials are underway to potentially appoint Salam Fayyad as prime minister for Gaza's reconstruction. Fayyad previously held the position from 2007 to 2013 but was ousted due to disagreements with the Palestinian Authority's leadership.
While Fayyad's appointment could attract financial support from Arab states, Jarbawi expresses concern that Palestinians may view him as an agent of U.S. interests, complicating his acceptance among the populace.
Analysts note that external influences from various countries have exacerbated factionalism within Palestinian politics, undermining unity. The popularity of Hamas has increased among Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank, challenging the authority of Mahmoud Abbas and his government.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator, reflects on the persistent gaps between Israeli and Palestinian positions regarding a two-state solution, emphasizing that the traumas resulting from recent events will make bold actions difficult.