On Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III confirmed that North Korea has deployed troops to Russia to participate in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Austin described this development as a “very, very serious” escalation that could have significant implications for both Europe and Asia.
During a press briefing at a military base in Italy, Austin noted, “What exactly are they doing? Left to be seen,” without providing specific details on troop numbers or expectations for future deployments. He interpreted Russia's reliance on North Korean mercenaries as a sign of desperation from President Vladimir V. Putin.
Austin commented, “This is an indication that he may be in even more trouble than most people realize,” referencing earlier requests from Putin for military support from both North Korea and Iran. He mentioned that intelligence analysts are still working to confirm the movements of these troops toward Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials have expressed confidence that North Korean troops are en route to Ukraine, with the country’s defense minister expecting their presence soon in Kursk, a Russian territory that Ukraine has occupied.
American intelligence officials indicated plans to release substantial intelligence material, including satellite images that reportedly show troop ships moving from North Korea to training sites in Vladivostok and other areas in Russia.
Reports have emerged over the past two weeks regarding the training of over 12,000 North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces, with U.S. officials estimating that around 2,500 troops have already been sent. However, there is no estimate on additional numbers or the potential effectiveness of these troops in unfamiliar territory.
The Kremlin has not commented on this situation, and previous reports of North Korean troop presence have been denied by Russian officials. Despite this, U.S. estimates suggest that Russia is attempting to recruit 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers each month to replace casualties incurred during the conflict.
In response to recruitment challenges, the Russian government has implemented unconventional tactics, including increased sign-up bonuses for volunteer soldiers and recruitment efforts targeting prisoners and impoverished nations.
Experts on both Russia and North Korea have characterized the arrival of North Korean troops as a pivotal moment. As casualties in Ukraine surpass 600,000, Putin is reportedly turning to foreign mercenaries to mitigate domestic dissent related to these losses.
For North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, this involvement in the Ukraine conflict presents an opportunity to escape geopolitical isolation, with the potential for enhanced military cooperation with Russia. Analysts believe that Kim’s objectives may include advancing his intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities.
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine framed North Korea's troop involvement as an attempt by Putin to circumvent the unpopularity of mobilizing Russian citizens, noting growing reluctance within Russia to mobilize its own forces.
U.S. and South Korean intelligence agencies are investigating what Kim might seek in return for these troop contributions. Currently, there is no clear agreement regarding compensation or military aid, although there have been indications of increased collaboration in missile technology between the two nations.
As American-made missiles are increasingly being deployed against Russian targets, some intelligence officials speculate that Putin might be incentivized to assist North Korea in demonstrating its capacity to threaten the U.S.
The relationship dynamics with China remain uncertain, as North Korea’s cooperation with Russia could be viewed as problematic by Beijing, which has traditionally exerted influence over the North. However, so far, intelligence reports have not indicated a significant Chinese reaction to North Korea’s actions.