Top Biden administration negotiators returned to the Middle East on Thursday for a final diplomatic effort ahead of the American election, although expectations for swift agreements to pause ongoing conflicts remain low.
As Israel continues its military operations against Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director and principal U.S. negotiator, was anticipated to meet with officials in Cairo. Concurrently, President Biden’s Middle East coordinator, Brett McGurk, and envoy Amos Hochstein were engaged in discussions in Israel, according to an anonymous U.S. official.
General Michael E. Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, was also in the region, scheduled to meet with Israeli counterparts and U.S. military personnel in the country, as confirmed by the same official.
The overarching aim of these diplomatic visits is to reinforce the Biden administration’s strategy of “de-escalation backed by deterrence.” However, progress in cease-fire negotiations appears unlikely in the immediate future, particularly with the U.S. elections approaching on Tuesday.
Israeli officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, indicated that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hesitant to commit to a diplomatic path until after the U.S. election results are known.
During his meetings in Egypt, Burns is expected to address proposals aimed at securing the release of hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a cease-fire. Approximately 100 hostages taken during the Hamas attack in October remain in Gaza, with Israeli officials estimating that around two-thirds are still alive.
Earlier discussions among envoys from Israel, the U.S., and mediating countries Egypt and Qatar had led to potential proposals for a temporary cease-fire that would facilitate the return of a limited number of hostages.
Burns’s discussions in Cairo are likely to refine these proposals, with hopes that they might encourage both Israel and Hamas to soften their stances and resume serious negotiations after a period of stalled talks.
Multiple versions of a potential agreement are under consideration, including one that would involve the release of female hostages and male captives over 50 in exchange for a specified number of Palestinian prisoners. This version would likely result in a shorter pause in fighting than the six weeks previously proposed.
However, U.S. officials express skepticism regarding Hamas's willingness to accept any of the new proposals. A senior Hamas official, Osama Hamdan, has already dismissed a recent Egyptian proposal for a 48-hour cease-fire, asserting that Hamas would only agree to a permanent cessation of hostilities.
Some U.S. officials believe that both Hamas and certain Israeli leaders view a waiting strategy as beneficial. The longstanding conflict with Hezbollah has escalated significantly since the group began firing on Israel in solidarity with Hamas, leading to increased military operations and airstrikes within Lebanon.
Hezbollah continued its attacks on Israel, with local officials in northern Israel reporting that projectiles from Lebanon struck an agricultural area, resulting in the deaths of four foreign workers and an Israeli farmer.
In Israel, McGurk and Hochstein were expected to discuss the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the situation of hostages, and Israeli military actions against Hezbollah and Iran. A draft cease-fire proposal regarding the conflict with Hezbollah was recently circulated in Israeli media, prompting a warning from National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett that such reports should be treated with skepticism.
“There are many reports and drafts circulating,” Savett stated. “They do not reflect the current state of negotiations.”
The published draft does not appear likely to gain traction, as Kassem Kassir, a Lebanese expert on Hezbollah, remarked that the proposal calls for Hezbollah's withdrawal from the border area with Israel and for Lebanese authorities to prevent the group from rearming. He indicated that such points are premature for discussion and unlikely to be accepted by Hezbollah.