The accusation by Canada’s prime minister that the Indian government orchestrated a campaign to threaten and kill Sikhs on Canadian soil has spotlighted the potential reach of India’s intelligence network, which primarily operates in South Asia.
Mr. Trudeau’s allegations have surprised many in diplomatic circles, as countries typically avoid airing allegations of espionage and assassinations against foreign intelligence services.
India’s neighbors, particularly Pakistan, are familiar with Indian covert operations, which are understood to have included targeted airstrikes and assassinations abroad.
However, the public nature of Canada’s claims has provided insight into the operations of Indian intelligence, including the potential involvement of senior government officials in directing these activities.
The strongly worded statements from Mr. Trudeau on Monday have escalated a diplomatic row between Canada and India, which had been intensifying for over a year following the killing of a Canadian Sikh citizen.
Mr. Trudeau previously accused the Indian government of organizing the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who advocated for the creation of a separate Sikh nation-state called Khalistan in India’s Punjab state.
Canadian officials have accused India of managing a significant intelligence gathering network in Canada, leading to the expulsion of six Indian diplomats, including the Indian high commissioner to Canada. In response, Indian officials dismissed the claims as “absurd” and expelled six Canadian diplomats.
Indian authorities have strongly denied the allegations, with little specific evidence provided by officials in Ottawa to support their claims. India’s intelligence apparatus includes the Research and Analysis Wing, responsible for external intelligence, and the Intelligence Bureau, focused on domestic issues.
Ajit Doval, India’s national security adviser and a key adviser to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is regarded as a significant figure in shaping foreign policy through intelligence operations.
Experts note that under the leadership of Modi and Doval, Indian intelligence agencies have received increased funding and autonomy, enhancing their capabilities.
The Research and Analysis Wing has historically focused on regional security threats, particularly from China and Pakistan, evolving its operations to meet growing global ambitions.
Despite concerns, some analysts express skepticism about the necessity for India to execute targeted assassinations of Sikh extremists in Canada, suggesting that the movement does not pose a significant political threat to the Indian government.
Nonetheless, Mr. Modi has amplified the potential threat of Sikh extremism in his political messaging.
India has also been cooperating with the United States regarding a similar case involving an Indian national accused of attempting to arrange the killing of a Sikh cleric with dual American and Canadian citizenship.
In India, media outlets and commentators generally perceive Mr. Trudeau’s actions as motivated by domestic politics, given his engagement with Canadian Sikhs, who represent a growing political force in the country.
Commentators indicate that Trudeau’s actions may have crossed a significant diplomatic boundary, potentially leading to further deterioration of relations between the two nations.
Former Indian diplomat K.C. Singh noted that such serious accusations at the highest levels mark a "crisis point" in diplomatic relations, suggesting that typically, higher officials remain uninvolved in such disputes to allow room for compromise.