Thousands of North Korean men were previously sent home from Russia's Pacific Coast six years ago, following President Vladimir V. Putin's decision to penalize North Korea for its nuclear weapons development. Now, these North Koreans are reportedly returning as soldiers to support Russia in its ongoing war effort in Ukraine.
Intelligence agencies from the United States, Ukraine, and South Korea have indicated that thousands of North Korean soldiers have arrived in recent weeks. This marks a significant shift in the military alliance that has been rekindled between Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un earlier this year.
The influx of North Korean troops highlights the evolving dynamics of Russia's international relations, particularly since the invasion of Ukraine over two years ago. Russia's strategic interests have increasingly centered around the war, which the Kremlin frames as an existential battle for survival.
Putin's renewed cooperation with North Korea, a nation largely isolated from the international community, underscores the extent to which the war in Ukraine has severed Russia's last ties with Western nations and exacerbated global issues such as arms control and nuclear nonproliferation.
Experts suggest this represents a significant shift in Russian policy, as Russia has transitioned from being a cooperative partner with the West regarding contentious nations to becoming a major challenge itself.
The ramifications of Russia's break with the U.S.-led global order are expected to linger beyond the conflict in Ukraine, influencing geopolitical tensions such as those between the United States and China.
Russia's relationships with neighboring countries have also transformed due to the ongoing war. Finland and Sweden have abandoned their long-standing neutrality to join NATO, while Belarus has deepened its alignment with Moscow as a logistical support center for the invasion.
Meanwhile, China has emerged as Russia's primary economic ally, taking over from Western nations as the leading buyer of Russian energy supplies and providing critical goods and technologies for the war effort.
The relationship between Russia and North Korea has seen one of the most pronounced evolutions. Historically, their Cold War alliance diminished significantly following the Soviet Union's collapse, with North Korea offering little to Russia economically as it transitioned towards a market economy.
Putin's ascent to power coincided with an increase in oil and gas prices, enabling Russia to reduce its reliance on North Korean imports, mainly labor. The Kremlin's concerns over North Korea's nuclear ambitions initially led to a rare shared interest with the West in curbing its arsenal.
In 2017, Russia participated in imposing extensive sanctions on North Korea, which significantly curtailed its economic interactions. Although Russia never fully adhered to these restrictions, trade levels fell sharply, with North Korean laborers in Russia decreasing from 34,000 in 2017 to approximately 11,000 by the end of 2018.
Economic relations further deteriorated due to sanctions and the pandemic, leading to a substantial drop in bilateral trade. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point, as North Korea emerged as a willing partner amid a growing demand for military supplies.
Recent reports indicate that North Korea has supplied Russia with artillery and missiles, with estimates suggesting that over 13,000 shipping containers of military equipment have been sent since August 2023. The specifics of compensation for these supplies remain uncertain, although speculation suggests potential trade-offs with basic goods.
This exchange of military supplies has led to a relaxation of previous trade restrictions, resulting in a significant increase in trade value between Russia and North Korea, which reportedly rose to nearly $35 million in the past year.
Diplomatic ties have strengthened, highlighted by Putin's warm reception of Kim during his visit to Russia in September. Kim has publicly supported Russia's military actions, framing them as a defense against Western influence.
Despite initial reservations about North Korea's nuclear capabilities, recent developments indicate a shift in Putin's stance, with indications that he may acknowledge North Korea's position as a nuclear power.
The first units of North Korean soldiers were reported to have arrived in Russia this month via Navy ships, with estimates suggesting around 3,000 soldiers are now present. While the Russian government has denied the presence of North Korean troops, the situation underscores the ongoing challenges faced by Russia in sustaining its military efforts in Ukraine.
With significant losses in the conflict, Russia's search for additional troops is becoming more urgent, leading to partnerships with countries like North Korea. This situation highlights Russia's continued struggle for manpower and resources as the war drags on.