Moldova began voting on Sunday in a referendum aimed at enshrining an “irreversible” commitment in its Constitution to leave Russia’s sphere of influence and pursue membership in the European Union. This decision comes amid a presidential election featuring pro-Western incumbent Maia Sandu and ten other candidates, some of whom advocate for closer ties with Russia.
Emerging as an independent state from the Soviet Union in 1991, Moldova has historically oscillated between pro-Russian and pro-European leadership. Sandu's government initiated membership negotiations with the EU in June, a process that has gained urgency following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, prompting Western nations to bolster their support for Moldova.
Three Baltic States—Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia—joined the EU and NATO two decades ago, solidifying their alignment with the West and curbing Russian influence in the region. In response to the Ukraine conflict, the European Commission recommended candidate status for Moldova and Ukraine in June 2022, marking a significant step in their EU aspirations.
Opinion polls indicate that Sandu is leading in the presidential race, but it remains uncertain whether she will secure the necessary majority to avoid a runoff. The referendum's validity hinges on at least one-third of registered voters participating, a challenge given that approximately one million of Moldova's 3.3 million voters are currently abroad or deceased.
Moldovans living outside the country, who tend to be younger and more pro-European, will have the opportunity to vote at embassies and polling stations. Monitoring group Promo-LEX suggests that high turnout in previous referendums could help meet the voter threshold, although significant participation from expatriates will be crucial.
A positive outcome in the referendum would represent a binding mandate for constitutional change, reinforcing Moldova's commitment to European integration. A recent poll indicated that 55 percent of respondents support enshrining EU membership as a strategic objective, while a similar proportion expressed opposition and favor for joining the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union.
The survey results reveal a divided electorate, with a notable segment still favoring ties to Russia, particularly among older generations and residents in Russian-speaking regions. Natalia Morari, a former ally of Sandu and presidential candidate, criticized the referendum as a political maneuver lacking genuine commitment to European integration.
The referendum is under close scrutiny from Moscow, Brussels, and Washington, each attempting to influence the outcome. The U.S. and EU have pledged economic support, including a recent $2 billion package, while Russia has reportedly engaged in disinformation campaigns and financial incentives to sway public opinion against Sandu and the West.
John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, accused Russia of actively undermining Moldova's election and European integration efforts, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied any involvement in meddling.