China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India officially met for the first time in over five years on Wednesday during a summit of emerging market countries in Russia, signaling a potential thaw in relations between the two nations.
This meeting occurred shortly after China and India reached an agreement regarding patrolling their shared Himalayan border, which was the site of a deadly clash in 2020. Since that incident, relations have been strained, with India increasingly aligning itself with the United States through the Quad regional security grouping.
Both leaders are attending the 16th annual BRICS summit, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and expanded this year to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. This group represents nearly half of the global population and was established as a counterbalance to U.S.-led forums like the Group of 7, aiming to enhance the influence of developing countries.
BRICS has faced challenges in presenting a unified stance, largely due to the differing priorities of its two largest members. China seeks to leverage the grouping to diminish U.S. dominance and assert its leadership in the Global South, while India aspires to lead the Global South without positioning BRICS as an anti-Western bloc.
During a round table session, the leaders addressed various topics, including the establishment of financial platforms outside U.S. dollar influence. Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed creating a BRICS grain exchange, which could evolve into a broader commodities exchange, in light of Russia's status as the world's largest wheat exporter and the impact of the Ukraine conflict on global grain prices.
While improved relations between China and India could enhance BRICS' cohesion, analysts caution that a lasting resolution remains uncertain. Concerns persist regarding the specifics of the border agreement and how the two nations will manage patrols in the disputed and inhospitable terrain.
For China, reducing tensions with India could weaken New Delhi's ties with Washington while alleviating some economic pressures amid a domestic property crisis. Conversely, a stable border agreement would benefit Modi's government, which has taken steps to limit Chinese influence following the 2020 clash.
Strengthened relations with China would position India at a complex intersection of geopolitical influences in Asia. The U.S. has been actively courting India as a strategic counterbalance to China, seeking to unite various democracies in defense arrangements across Asia.
India's foreign policy has historically been characterized by overlapping and sometimes conflicting alliances. It is the only nation that participates in both the Quad, which includes the U.S., Japan, and Australia, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, dominated by China and Russia, alongside Pakistan, India's primary adversary.
Efforts to strengthen U.S.-India ties have intensified over the past 25 years, particularly under the Trump and Biden administrations, resulting in increased economic, technological, and military collaboration. Recently, India signed a $3.5 billion deal to acquire American Predator drones.