The killing of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader whose decision to attack Israel over a year ago initiated a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, may be pivotal in efforts to end the violence. Analysts suggest that with Hamas significantly weakened in Gaza, Israel might be inclined to declare victory and pursue cease-fire negotiations, while a demoralized Hamas could be more amenable to discussions.
Regional countries, particularly Egypt and Jordan, have repeatedly called for a cease-fire due to the humanitarian crisis and the economic instability caused by the conflict. Egypt's Prime Minister, Mostafa Madbouly, warned of a potential shift to a "war economy" if regional instability continues to threaten vital revenue sources, including tourism and shipping through the Suez Canal.
The Gulf Arab monarchies have also expressed a desire for calm. Leaders from Qatar and Saudi Arabia have engaged in discussions with U.S. officials to work towards ending the conflict, recognizing that ongoing instability could hinder their national development plans.
Despite their aggressive rhetoric, even Iran and its allied groups, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, may be seeking a resolution to a conflict that has become increasingly detrimental to their interests. Analysts note that these groups are currently on the defensive.
Iran has shown restraint following the initial Hamas attack on October 7, refraining from launching significant offensives against Israel. While it has responded to Israeli strikes, it has avoided actions that would provoke a severe retaliation.
The possibility of a cease-fire ultimately hinges on the decisions made by Israel and Hamas. Although there are calls within Israel for an end to hostilities to facilitate the return of hostages and alleviate military and economic pressures, Israeli leadership has continued to escalate military operations.
Following the announcement of Sinwar's death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that while a significant blow had been dealt to Hamas, the mission was not complete. Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies have indicated a desire to retaliate, with Hezbollah announcing a transition to a more aggressive phase in its conflict with Israel.
However, analysts do not anticipate a major escalation from Iran or its affiliates in response to Sinwar’s death, as it was somewhat expected. The circumstances surrounding his death are seen as less humiliating for Iran compared to previous losses.
Some Iranian-affiliated commanders have suggested that the ongoing conflict has been detrimental to Iran's strategic interests, indicating a potential desire for de-escalation in the region. Analysts believe that Iran may seek to moderate Hamas's response to Sinwar's killing to avoid further escalation.
Ultimately, the decision to pursue a cease-fire lies with Israel, which must weigh its strategic advantages against the potential for further conflict. While there is a general desire among regional actors for an end to hostilities, Israeli leadership shows little inclination to de-escalate at this time.