Israel's recent military operation against Iran marks a significant escalation in the long-standing conflict between the two nations, although analysts suggest it has not yet triggered an all-out war.
This operation is notable as it is the first time Israel has publicly acknowledged conducting a military strike within Iran, breaking years of silence regarding its covert actions against Iranian targets. It is also one of the few instances of foreign air force attacks within Iran since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s.
In response, Iran has not specified a timeline for retaliation. The Iranian foreign ministry stated that while Iran is "obliged to defend itself," it is also committed to regional peace and security, indicating a more measured response compared to previous incidents.
Analysts interpret this as a sign that Iran is attempting to manage the situation and avoid escalating tensions further. Ellie Geranmayeh, an expert on Iran, noted that Tehran can absorb these strikes without launching a significant retaliation that could provoke further Israeli actions.
In its recent strikes, Israel targeted approximately 20 military installations, including air defense systems and missile production sites, while avoiding sensitive nuclear facilities and oil production sites, following U.S. pressure to limit the scope of its attacks.
Iran's leadership has sought to project normalcy following the strikes, with the aviation authority reopening airspace and state media showcasing daily life returning to routine, suggesting a desire to downplay the significance of the Israeli operation.
Experts warn that, despite the current restraint, the situation remains precarious, with ongoing conflicts involving Hezbollah and Hamas potentially leading to further escalations between Israel and Iran.
The conflict has evolved from a covert war to open confrontation, particularly following recent attacks by Hamas on Israel, which have prompted Israeli counterattacks and increased tensions in the region.
Some analysts express concern that Israel's recent actions could set the stage for more extensive military operations after the upcoming U.S. presidential election, during which American influence on the Iran-Israel conflict may diminish.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces pressure to respond more forcefully to Iran, amid fears regarding its nuclear ambitions and support for anti-Israel militias. Critics argue that Netanyahu's recent military decisions indicate a shift towards more aggressive foreign policy.
Following the attack, some Israeli politicians have called for more substantial military action against Iran, while others commend the government for exercising restraint and avoiding a prolonged conflict.
Overall, the situation remains fluid, with potential for further developments as both nations navigate the complexities of their ongoing conflict.