As the aftermath of Israel's recent military strikes against Iran unfolds, analysts and former diplomats observe a significant shift in the dynamics of the Middle East, with Israel increasingly dictating events while the United States assumes a secondary role.
This change marks a departure from the historical perspective where the U.S. positioned itself as the central player in the region, often attempting to influence its complex history through various interventions.
Currently, as Israel conducts military operations against adversaries such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Iran, President Biden's capacity to exert influence appears notably constrained. His administration is primarily engaged in diplomatic efforts to manage the fallout rather than initiating major peace initiatives.
Some U.S. diplomatic efforts have yielded limited success, such as Israel's compliance with American warnings against targeting sensitive Iranian sites in response to missile attacks from Iran. However, broader initiatives, including cease-fire negotiations with Hamas, have not achieved significant progress, and a comprehensive strategy to prevent a wider conflict remains absent.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy seems focused on leveraging the momentum from the October 7 Hamas attacks to decisively confront Israel's adversaries. While supporters view this as a pivotal opportunity to reshape regional dynamics, critics argue that Israel is escalating tensions without a clear post-conflict plan.
Experts note a concerning imbalance in the U.S.-Israel alliance, where Israel appears to have a more expansive vision for the region while the U.S. is left to react to developments. This situation raises alarms about the implications for U.S. foreign policy and its standing against rivals like China and Russia, who are observing the U.S.'s limited ability to influence the situation.
The ongoing conflict coincides with a politically charged environment in the U.S., as the presidential election approaches. Vice President Kamala Harris has maintained a stance similar to President Biden regarding support for Israel, despite facing challenges on the campaign trail. In contrast, former President Donald Trump has expressed strong support for Israeli military actions, indicating potential shifts in U.S. policy depending on the election outcome.
Should Trump regain the presidency, analysts predict a likelihood of more aggressive Israeli actions against Iran and an expansion of the Abraham Accords. Conversely, a Harris administration might pursue a more integrated approach to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict alongside Israel's relations with Arab nations, although progress remains uncertain.
Historically, the U.S. has utilized periods of upheaval in the Middle East to advocate for change, as seen after the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the first Palestinian intifada. However, the current conflict presents unique challenges, including the severe impact of the Hamas attacks on Israeli society and the uncertain leadership landscape in several key countries.
Iran's response has been inconsistent, influenced by its internal issues and the repercussions of Israeli actions against its proxies. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's government faces its own challenges, including potential corruption charges and a coalition with far-right elements that may exacerbate tensions with the Palestinian population.
While there are opportunities for progress, experts caution that the prevailing conditions may perpetuate conflict rather than lead to lasting peace.