Israeli airstrikes have destroyed munitions stores and resulted in the deaths of thousands of Hezbollah fighters, including many experienced commanders. Despite these losses, Hezbollah continues to engage in combat.
Since Israel's invasion of southern Lebanon nearly three weeks ago, its forces have faced a resilient enemy that utilizes the terrain for complex military operations. Hezbollah has launched frequent rocket attacks across the border, and a recent suicide drone strike on an Israeli military base resulted in the deaths of four soldiers. Additionally, a clash in southern Lebanon on Wednesday led to the deaths of five more Israeli soldiers, indicating that Israel's intensified military actions have not incapacitated Hezbollah.
Experts suggest that while Israel has significantly impacted Hezbollah's leadership, the group's internal communication and command structure remain intact. Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert, noted that the organization has been preparing for conflict with Israel for nearly two decades, allowing local commanders to maintain tactical control and autonomy in their operations.
Hezbollah announced a "new escalatory phase" in its conflict with Israel, although details were not disclosed. The group's ongoing resistance, particularly following the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah last month, may also affect Israel's operations against Hamas, another militant group. Israel recently killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, but Hezbollah's resilience suggests that this may not significantly weaken Hamas.
The current conflict began last October when Hezbollah began firing on Israeli positions in support of Hamas after the latter launched a surprise attack on Israel, triggering the Gaza war. Over the following months, exchanges of strikes along the Lebanon-Israel border displaced approximately 150,000 people.
In response to Hezbollah's actions, Israel has escalated its military campaign, targeting communication devices and conducting extensive bombings in areas where Hezbollah operates. This campaign has resulted in the deaths of many senior Hezbollah figures, including Nasrallah.
On September 30, Israel deployed ground troops into southern Lebanon, aiming to dismantle Hezbollah's military infrastructure. Prior to the Gaza war, Hezbollah was estimated to have between 20,000 to 30,000 trained fighters and an arsenal of over 120,000 rockets and missiles, along with advanced weaponry.
Hezbollah has not disclosed the extent of its losses in recent attacks, but Israeli assessments indicate significant damage to its arsenal and casualties among its fighters. Despite these losses, Hezbollah continues to demonstrate its military capabilities, launching daily rocket barrages and executing a successful drone strike on an Israeli base.
Israeli military officials report that Hezbollah remains a formidable opponent, capable of quick mobilization and effective ambush tactics. Since the invasion began, 18 Israeli soldiers have been killed in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah has not publicly reported its own casualties.
While Israeli strikes have weakened Hezbollah, experts believe the group remains operational. Hezbollah has adapted its tactics, utilizing the terrain of southern Lebanon to its advantage, despite the challenges posed by Israeli airstrikes.
Hezbollah's limited anti-aircraft capabilities hinder its response to Israeli air assaults, but the group employs the landscape to conceal its operations. The use of drones and surveillance technology allows Hezbollah to target Israeli forces effectively.
Israeli military strategies have been adjusted to mitigate the risk of soldier capture, emphasizing heavy fire to prevent Hezbollah from regrouping. Experts speculate that Hezbollah may be conserving its more advanced weaponry for a potential escalation in conflict, particularly if Israel targets critical infrastructure in Lebanon.
However, the infiltration of Hezbollah by Israeli intelligence poses a significant challenge for the group, as evidenced by the targeted killings of its leaders. This intelligence penetration could continue to undermine Hezbollah's operational effectiveness.