Kelly Ayotte, a Republican and former U.S. senator, entered the New Hampshire governor’s race last year with several advantages, including name recognition and fundraising prowess. Her opponent, Joyce Craig, is the former mayor of Manchester and represents the Democratic Party. Despite these advantages, polls indicate a tight race with no clear leader.
Analysts suggest that Ayotte's record on abortion may be impacting her campaign. She has faced aggressive advertising from Democrats, who imply that she would seek to restrict abortion access in New Hampshire. Additionally, the strong support for Vice President Kamala Harris in the state could also be influencing voter sentiment.
During her time in the Senate, Ayotte voted to defund Planned Parenthood and supported the Supreme Court's 2022 decision that eliminated the constitutional right to abortion, which shifted control of the issue to the states. New Hampshire currently bans abortion after 24 weeks with limited exceptions, and although Ayotte claims she would not push to change this law, some voters express distrust.
Independent voter Marie Mulroy highlighted concerns about Ayotte's support for former President Donald Trump, stating that her previous criticisms of Trump have created skepticism among women voters. In 2016, Ayotte distanced herself from Trump, stating she could not support a candidate who degrades women, but she has since aligned herself with him in the current presidential race.
New Hampshire has leaned Democratic in recent presidential elections but has elected both Republicans and Democrats to the governorship. Ayotte's challenge is intensified by Biden's declining popularity, which reversed when he was succeeded by Harris, who currently leads Trump in state polling.
Former state Republican Party chairman Fergus Cullen noted that Trump's lack of investment in New Hampshire could affect Republican turnout, while Democratic strategist Karen Hicks emphasized the Harris campaign's focus on voter mobilization efforts that benefit Craig.
Craig has received support from prominent New England women and has been rallying her campaign workers with assistance from influential figures, including current and former governors and senators. Despite her campaign's strengths, she is defending her record as mayor against Ayotte's criticisms regarding drug issues and homelessness in Manchester.
Some voters express mixed support, with individuals like Travis Janvrin favoring Ayotte for her perceived effectiveness in addressing local issues. In contrast, others support Craig for her community engagement and relationship-building efforts.
Ayotte's private sector experience has also come under scrutiny, with Craig accusing her of profiting from the state’s housing crisis while serving on the board of a global investment firm. Ayotte counters that her experience would enable her to better govern the state.
The candidates are also debating tax policies, with Ayotte criticizing Craig for opposing the phaseout of the state’s interest and dividends tax, warning that her election would lead to higher taxes and less freedom.
Strategists predict that the new governor will face significant challenges, particularly in balancing the state budget amid the loss of federal pandemic funding and a projected deficit of up to $1 billion.