Florida has transitioned from a competitive presidential battleground to a state increasingly leaning Republican, with candidates no longer frequently campaigning there and voters receiving fewer advertisements. The state, once decided by narrow margins, has seen a significant shift in voter registration dynamics, with Democrats now outnumbered by over one million Republicans.
In recent years, the Florida Democratic Party has struggled to regain its footing, failing to win a statewide seat since 2018. The loss of Florida's electoral votes poses a significant challenge for Democrats as they prepare for the 2024 presidential election, where they must focus on other swing states.
Factors contributing to this shift include demographic changes, partisan gerrymandering, and legislative term limits, alongside strategic missteps by the Democratic Party. An analysis of voter registration and campaign spending reveals a lack of investment in essential electoral infrastructure and flawed assumptions regarding the Hispanic vote.
The 2020 election highlighted these shortcomings, as national Democrats reduced their spending in Florida, leading to losses for key candidates. Republicans have capitalized on these opportunities, implementing conservative policies that have solidified their power in the state.
In the 2020 presidential election, while Joe Biden won the presidency, Donald Trump secured Florida, marking a significant shift in voting patterns. Current polls indicate Trump holds a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the state.
Governor Ron DeSantis has claimed credit for Florida's transformation, winning re-election by a substantial margin in 2022. He emphasized the ease of Republican victories in the state, contrasting it with the competitive nature of past elections.
Democrats have seen a gradual decline in their voter base since Barack Obama won the state in 2012. As of September 2023, Republicans have a significant lead in active registered voters, with many Democrats classified as inactive due to lack of participation in recent elections.
The Republican Party of Florida has maintained robust funding and voter registration efforts, while Democrats have increasingly relied on external groups for voter outreach, which has not yielded significant results. This decentralization has weakened the state party's influence and fundraising capabilities.
Strategically, Democrats miscalculated the potential growth of their coalition among Hispanic voters, who have historically leaned Republican. Despite initial successes, recent elections have shown a shift back toward Republican support among younger Cuban Americans and other Hispanic demographics.
The 2022 midterms marked a low point for Florida Democrats, with decreased voter turnout and minimal national support. However, state party leaders are attempting to portray Florida as competitive again, focusing on improving turnout and winning local races.
Looking ahead, Democrats hope to achieve victories through ballot measures, such as Amendment 4, which aims to guarantee abortion rights. However, the measure requires significant support to pass, and the party acknowledges that rebuilding their presence in Florida will be a gradual process.