Storm hunters from Hong Kong recently faced intense turbulence as they gathered data from Super Typhoon Yagi, a Category 4 storm, which was located south of the city. The team released probes from their small jet at an altitude of 30,000 feet, contributing valuable information that meteorologists believe is essential for improving storm forecasts.
Captain Chan Wing Chi of the Hong Kong Government Flying Service expressed his determination during an interview after the flight, noting that some crew members prefer to fly on an empty stomach to better endure the turbulence.
While the U.S. government has conducted observation flights in storms across the Americas for over 80 years, such missions are infrequent in the western Pacific, an area known for its high frequency of major storms, referred to as “Typhoon Alley.” These storms impact a broad region, including Japan, the Korean Peninsula, mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
Despite the significance of these storms, only a limited number of observation flights are conducted in Asia each year due to ongoing political disputes, high operational costs, and a lack of consensus on the flights' benefits.
Many scientists argue that these flights can reduce forecasting errors by 10 to 20 percent, but currently, only Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan perform such missions in the region. Jason Dunion, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, emphasized the importance of having aircraft directly gather data from storms, as regions like the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific often rely on less reliable sources such as ship and satellite reports.
In contrast to the Atlantic, where many countries permit American observational planes to operate in their airspace, Asia presents a complex situation. Long-standing territorial disputes, particularly in the South China Sea, hinder cooperation and airspace access for weather flights.
The Typhoon Committee, comprising 14 member countries, collaborates to produce tropical cyclone forecasts under the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization. However, the committee has not coordinated observation flights, according to Taoyong Peng, a senior official at the organization, who noted that expanding such flights could raise security concerns.
The financial aspect of these flights is also significant, with costs estimated at around $15,000 per hour, and flight durations ranging from two to five hours. Some scientists and governments in Asia remain skeptical about the potential improvements in forecasting accuracy that these flights could provide.
Dong-Hyun Cha, a professor at the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology in South Korea, stated that the absence of observation flights has not led to a notable decline in typhoon predictability, attributing advancements in satellite technology as a compensatory factor for data scarcity from countries like North Korea and Myanmar.
In Hong Kong, meteorologists have effectively utilized aircraft data to enhance their forecasts. For instance, after probes were deployed into Storm Talim last year, meteorologists determined that the storm was significantly stronger than initially predicted, prompting timely preparations in the city.
Similarly, Taiwan has a long history of conducting flights into typhoons, with atmospheric scientist Chun-Chieh Wu noting that such missions have greatly improved forecasting accuracy. An example includes the observation of Typhoon Sepat in 2007, where data collected led to revised warnings about the storm's impact.
On average, Hong Kong conducts observation flights for three storms each year. Captain Chan emphasized the importance of these missions, stating that the data collected can be crucial for saving lives, making the expense worthwhile.