Chinese warplanes have crossed an informal boundary between China and Taiwan, marking a significant escalation in military activity. In addition, Chinese Coast Guard boats and naval ships have encircled Taiwan, while fighter jets were launched from an aircraft carrier stationed off the island’s east coast.
The large-scale military drills conducted by China were intended to showcase its capacity to restrict Taiwan's access to essential resources such as food and fuel, as well as to block potential military interventions from the United States and its allies.
These exercises reflect China's enhanced coordination among military, coast guard, and rocket forces, raising concerns about the possibility of confrontations that could involve the United States and its Asian allies.
The ongoing military pressure from China is creating a new normal for Taiwan, leading to daily strains on its defense forces and increasing the likelihood of capitulation without conflict.
This marks the second instance in less than five months that China has conducted similar military exercises, responding to perceived pro-separatist statements from Taiwan’s President, Lai Ching-te. In contrast, only two such drills occurred during the eight-year tenure of Lai’s predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen.
Analysts suggest that China's military activities are partly a reaction to recent exercises conducted by the United States and its allies in the region. Concurrently, the United States and the Philippines are engaged in their annual military drills, with troops from Japan, South Korea, Australia, Britain, and France also participating.
On a related note, President Xi Jinping visited Dongshan County in Fujian Province, a coastal area near Taiwan, while a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office reiterated Beijing's stance that it would not renounce the use of force if necessary.
The frequency of these military drills increases the risks in an already volatile region. A potential accident between Chinese and Taiwanese forces could escalate tensions, leading to a political crisis and a possible conflict.
In the event of a conflict between China and Taiwan, the United States may intervene in defense of Taiwan, a factor that continues to heighten tensions between Washington and Beijing. The U.S. accuses China of destabilizing the region with provocative military actions, while China accuses the U.S. of supporting Taiwanese independence.
China's pressure campaign includes challenging Taiwan’s territorial limits in both air and sea. A record number of 153 Chinese aircraft approached the island, with 111 crossing the previously respected median line in the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, Chinese coast guard boats entered restricted waters near Taiwan's Matsu Islands.
China is working to improve the coordination among its military branches, a skill that has been refined by the U.S. through decades of conflict. The Chinese military has not engaged in significant combat since its brief conflict with Vietnam in 1979.
China’s enhanced military operations are evident as it increasingly approaches Taiwanese waters, with activities expanding further from China’s coastline. The inclusion of the Liaoning aircraft carrier in recent exercises signifies an effort to project military strength in the Pacific.
Moreover, the recent drills saw the participation of 18 coast guard vessels, the highest number to date, suggesting a reliance on maritime law enforcement to enforce a blockade around Taiwan. This strategy could frame any potential quarantine as an internal issue for China.
The ongoing military intimidation poses risks for China’s broader economic interests, as the perception of a military threat could deter foreign investment during a period when China is attempting to stabilize its economy.
These military drills also risk drawing greater attention to China in American political discourse, an outcome that Beijing likely wishes to avoid.
China's military exercises serve a dual purpose, with a significant domestic audience in mind. Propaganda efforts have attempted to portray these actions as protective measures for Taiwanese citizens, although the messaging has been met with ridicule in Taiwan.
Public reactions in Taiwan to the propaganda have been overwhelmingly negative, with many likening the imagery to abusive relationships and expressing disgust at the perceived insensitivity of the messaging.