In nearly 10 months of intense conflict with Hamas in Gaza, Israel has been involved in a slower-paced conflict with Hamas’s allies across the Middle East, with all sides risking major escalation but ultimately avoiding dragging the region into a wider, multi-front war. The recent attacks on two of Israel’s leading foes have disrupted this equilibrium, with Israel targeting a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut and the killing of Hamas’s political leader in Iran. This escalation has raised fears of a larger response from Iran and its regional proxies, potentially tipping the regional battle into a full-scale conflict. The attacks have also affected the prospects for a cease-fire deal in Gaza, with some analysts believing that the killing of Hamas’s top negotiator makes a cease-fire less likely in the immediate future. However, others argue that Hamas is unlikely to be seriously affected by his death, as it has plenty of other leaders. Both Iran and Hezbollah have reasons to respond in ways that make all-out war less likely. Despite the pressure to react, past experiences show that de-escalation is still possible. The double assassination could potentially provide a way out of the war altogether by allowing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to claim a symbolic victory and potentially agree to a cease-fire. However, Netanyahu may avoid doing so if he believes a truce would collapse his government, as his ruling coalition relies on far-right lawmakers who have threatened to quit the alliance if the war ends without Hamas’s defeat.