As tension between the U.S. and Iran escalates, Iraq finds itself caught in the middle.


Iraq's Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, visited Washington to negotiate economic aid and discuss shared strategic interests. However, events at home underscored the influence of both the United States and Iran, as the latter sent drones and missiles to attack Israel while Iraqi militias backed by Tehran participated. The presence of 2,500 American troops in Iraq remains contentious, with Iran pushing for their removal to increase its influence. Iran's sway in Iraq has grown as its Shiite political factions and militias have come to dominate the government and security forces. The recent attack on Israel involved Iraqi proxies of Iran, raising concerns about the extent of Iran's influence in the region. The Prime Minister has managed to balance U.S. and Iranian demands, but the decision on American troops' presence remains a challenging dilemma. While the U.S. has a significant stake in Iraq and still holds leverage due to Iraqi support, demands for a troop drawdown have intensified since the 2021 parliamentary elections. The Prime Minister aims for a reconfiguration that allows continued U.S. military involvement while meeting the demands of pro-Iran political factions. However, Iran is pushing for a complete withdrawal of American troops, with Iraqi leaders close to Iran backing this position. The U.S. assassination of Iranian General Qassim Suleimani in Baghdad in 2020 exacerbated anti-U.S. sentiment among Iraq's Shiite majority, further complicating the situation. Iraq's vulnerability lies in its lack of cohesive government policies, making it reactive to external influences. A delicate balance between U.S. and Iranian interests in Iraq remains uncertain, with the decision on American troops' presence representing a critical challenge for the country's leadership.



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