The conventional wisdom predicted a big red wave and Democratic wipeout in the 2022 congressional elections, but Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg disagreed. He successfully predicted the Democrats’ performance, and now he is pushing back against the polls and pundits by predicting a victory for President Biden over Donald J. Trump in November. Despite the prevailing nervousness among Democrats, Rosenberg remains confident due to factors such as the Republican party's struggles, Biden's leadership, and increased Democratic engagement. He emphasizes the limitations of polling and believes there are other important factors to consider. While acknowledging challenges, he maintains his confidence in the Democratic Party's prospects for the 2024 election.